Napoleon: Joaquin Phoenix's Drama Will Destroy Early Box-Office Predictions

This could be a big year for adult dramas. 

While studio tentpoles like "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" and "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" floundered, failing to recoup their budgets, twin flames "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" stole the summer, with the latter raking in north of $950 million worldwide. It's an impressive feat that Christopher Nolan's dialogue-heavy, three-hour-long, R-rated biopic on the father of the atomic bomb earned so much. Then, there's Martin Scorsese's three-hour-plus "Killers of the Flower Moon," which has grossed over $135 million worldwide to date. While the Leonardo DiCaprio picture will fail to post a profit thanks to its whopping $200 million budget, it boasts a high haul, considering its challenging subject matter. 

All eyes are now on Ridley Scott's "Napoleon," a film that, at least on the surface, shares the same DNA as "Oppenheimer." Both biopics, directed by veteran filmmakers, are centered on controversial but nevertheless successful world-changing men whose actions still affect us today. Both even feature lead performances (Joaquin Phoenix and Cillian Murphy, respectively) from actors who have penetrated the mainstream thanks to their culturally significant roles in projects like "Joker" and "Peaky Blinders." 

Deadline projects "Napoleon" to open with a modest $24 million during the 5-day Thanksgiving weekend. At first glance, a $24 million debut seems discouraging, especially since the film boasts a budget around $200 million. But a deeper dive into how impactful "Napoleon" could be may illustrate how the movie can break free from those conservative early projections. 

Twenty-four million dollars over five days appears disastrous, especially for such a costly picture. But these initial estimates could change, potentially in a positive direction. It's also important to note that this year has proven that legs matter regarding adult-oriented films. Look at the numbers for this year's breakout drama hit, "Sound of Freedom." A muted mid-summer domestic debut of $19 million eventually led to a stateside haul of $184 million. Word of mouth equally matters. Even "Killers of the Flower Moon," whose inflated budget robbed the film of box office glory, crossed the $55 million domestic barrier by its fourth weekend, thanks in part to its positive reviews and awards buzz.

But that $24 million projection for "Napoleon" appears to be an extremely conservative estimate. Yes, the Joaquin Phoenix vehicle has competition at the multiplex, including other adult-leaning films like Taika Waititi's feel-good soccer flick, "Next Goal Wins" (which debuted November 17). Then there's the festival darling "Saltburn," which opens wide on the 22nd. But those films aren't being marketed as blockbuster epics. "Napoleon" arguably has wider appeal than those projects and will instead face more competition from the sophomore weekend of "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes." 

Should "Napoleon" be well-received, it may exceed box office expectations. Pre-sale info is light, but it's possible this could become a favorite in premium formats like IMAX. Still, Phoenix and Scott will probably have to rely on legs for this one to be a winner. 

Despite the competition, "Napoleon" is debuting at the best possible time. It's no secret the last few years have been absolutely brutal for adult-oriented films. Ridley Scott's 2021 historical drama "The Last Duel," which cost $100 million, failed to make more than $30 million at the global box office. Even though the movie had a lot of things going for it, including an A-list cast (Matt Damon, Adam Driver, Ben Affleck) and a compelling blend of action and storytelling, it wasn't enough to compel viewers to head to the theater.

But there's a major shift happening. Audiences have suggested they may be less interested in generic blockbuster fare and want to see something different. While multiple genre films have floundered, movies like "Sound of Freedom" and "Oppenheimer" have succeeded. This change in taste could benefit "Napoleon." Perhaps audiences are becoming nostalgic for the adult-oriented dramas and historical fare that dominated multiplexes decades ago. 

One could argue the box office disappointment of "Killers of the Flower Moon" makes this argument moot, but it's important to understand it lacked cinematic spectacle that could be easily marketed. Promotion for "Napoleon" is leaning heavily into how action-packed and battle-heavy the picture is. If we treat "Napoleon" as a pure war film, then it could (optimistically) follow in the footsteps of 2019's "1917," which brought home a whopping $389 million worldwide for director Sam Mendes. 

What's particularly interesting about "Napoleon" is that it has the ability to be another breakout social media darling, not unlike "Oppenheimer" or "Barbie." It won't be able to reach the same heights as those films — the momentum simply isn't there. But the reality is that Napoleon Bonaparte has always spoken to portions of the male-identifying internet. Take to social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok and there are dozens of memes satirizing the French Emperor. But there's also a genuine level of interest in Bonaparte's exploits, with Napoleon's history serving as a gateway for many to learn more about the past. 

Just like J. Robert Oppenheimer or the Joker (also played by Joaquin Phoenix), Napoleon (for all his war crimes), has a certain "he's just like me fr" energy surrounding him. Phoenix may not have box office clout — his 2023 A24 drama "Beau is Afraid" couldn't make back half of its $35 million budget, but he's proven to be a darling on social media, especially after his billion-dollar stint as the Clown Prince of Crime. Similarly, audiences seem eager to support Ridley Scott when he isn't making niche historical dramas, so it'll be interesting to see if his fandom will show up for his most marketable film since 2015's "The Martian." 

Should the film prove to be critically fruitful, there's a possibility that memes and positive social media chatter could help "Napoleon" gross over $75 million domestically. It's also important to remember that it will likely already speak to older audiences, who helped Ridley Scott's 2021 effort, "House of Gucci," earn what was then the highest-grossing debut for a drama in the post-pandemic era.

Ridley Scott is one of the greatest directors working today. With classics like "Blade Runner," "Gladiator," and "Alien" under his belt, his legacy is cemented. However, one of the biggest hesitations going into "Napoleon" is Scott's recent track record, which has been hit or miss. In 2021, he perfectly summed up his elliptical critical receipts with the back-to-back releases of "The Last Duel" and "House of Gucci." The former got an 85% score on Rotten Tomatoes. However, "House of Gucci" was more mixed, receiving a 61% critical rating on the platform. 

With "Napoleon," Scott seems to have delivered another divisive film. As of this writing, it has an above-average, though not stellar, 67% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Dig deeper into the reviews, and you'll find those who love the film absolutely adore it. Peter Bradshaw of The Guardian gave the picture a 5-star rating, calling it an "outrageously enjoyable cavalry charge of a movie" that doubles down on "the old-fashioned pleasures of spectacle and excitement." Even Looper critic Audrey Fox, who scored it 6/10, couldn't help but praise the battle sequences and Joaquin Phoenix's performance. 

If word of mouth is positive, and audiences enjoy how pulse-pounding the film's action sequences are, prospective viewers may be more inclined to see "Napoleon" on the big screen instead of waiting for it to be released on Apple TV+.

Domestically, the film is looking to debut with a soft $24 million. That's similar to the three-day opening "Killers of the Flower Moon" posted in October. To date, Martin Scorsese's latest has grossed over $60 million domestically. The hope is "Napoleon" can cross that thanks to decent word of mouth and interest over the holiday season.

A solid scenario is the film becoming a fixture during the busy month of December, which is packed with blockbusters. In an ideal world, "Napoleon" would somewhat replicate the box office trajectory of "The Martian," Scott's last major hit. With an early October release, that crowd-pleaser debuted at $54 million stateside and boasted stellar legs, dropping only 32% in its sophomore weekend. It ended up grossing over $220 million domestically. If "Napoleon" can hold well and become a must-watch for general audiences, an $80 to $90 million domestic haul isn't too out of reach.  

In that scenario, the historical epic would play like James Mangold's Oscar-nominated "Ford v Ferrari," which debuted with $31 million in mid-November and legged its way to $117 million domestically. Word of mouth can always drive films, even if they're divisive. It'll also be interesting to see if international audiences, especially those in Europe, embrace the film. Notably, "Napoleon" is getting a release in China, so a big splash there could help make it a box office winner.