Summer 2026 Box Office Predictions: 5 Potential Flops

No moviegoing season is as important to Hollywood as summertime. This season often delivers hefty $4+ billion hauls as the biggest movies of the year amass gargantuan box office runs. From tentpole hits to sleeper successes nobody saw coming, summertime is when the box office thrives. For summer 2026, studio executives and film geeks alike are all holding their breath for this season to maintain the remarkable box office momentum that the year's first three months demonstrated.

While hopes fester that early 2026 moneymakers "Project Hail Mary" and "Hoppers"  can inspire further hits, inevitably, summer 2026 will host some flops. Every summer moviegoing season naturally houses such titles. Even the biggest summer's ever domestically, which were 2013 and 2016, had massive flops like "The Lone Ranger" and "Alice Through the Looking Glass," respectively. Looking ahead, a select few summer 2026 movies look especially vulnerable to becoming potential duds.

Some of these films are contending with poor scheduling. Others are part of larger cinematic trends that have overstayed their welcome. These and other problems could easily plague these five movies. Don't be surprised if these titles become the financial nadir of a summer moviegoing season that otherwise looks immensely promising. 

At this point, the live-action and realistically animated reimaginings of classic Disney cartoons are an unstoppable machine. From worst to best, these live-action Disney remakes often make $200+ or $300+ million domestically with ease. 2026's "Moana," a remake of a 2016 film that's one of the most watched movies ever on streaming, seems like, on paper, it would easily continue this box office phenomenon. However, some Disney remakes outright flopped, like "Dumbo" and "Snow White." Some early signs suggest this "Moana" update could be headed for similarly dire territory.

For one thing, the biggest of these remakes hinge on Disney Animation projects released during the studio's "Renaissance" period in the '90s. Enough time had passed between the animated and live-action "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin" films to make the return of these characters feel significant. "Moana," on the other hand, is adapting a movie that will be just a few months shy of 10 years old in July 2026. To boot, "Moana 2" was just dominating theaters at the end of 2024. Meanwhile, competition from "The Odyssey" and "Minions and Monsters" means "Moana" won't be the biggest fish in the pond come July 2026.

Dwayne Johnson's recent flops suggest that not everything is foolproof with this summer tentpole. "Moana" could easily be the next "The Little Mermaid" at the box office, but there are some worrying signals at play.

The history of the "Masters of the Universe" reboot stretches back decades. Countless studios have tried their hand at making He-Man's Eternia realm the centerpiece of a massive blockbuster, while actors like Kellan Lutz and Kyle Allen were attached at various stages of its development. Now, Amazon MGM Studios and director Travis Knight are finally bringing "Universe" to the silver screen once more. However, even after so much effort, this costly blockbuster doesn't seem on track to become a hit.

The biggest fantasy movie bombs illustrate how tough it is to get general audiences hooked on swords and sorcery cinema. Even something well-reviewed like "Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves" couldn't shatter that box office norm. Plus, it's been decades since He-Man has starred in a super successful kid's cartoon. Young people are undoubtedly more interested in properties like "Five Nights at Freddy's" that belong to their generation than a yesteryear blockbuster like "Masters of the Universe" rooted in 80s nostalgia.

Throw in competition from "Toy Story 5" and "Disclosure Day" and there doesn't seem to be much room for "Masters of the Universe." It's looking highly doubtful that straining so hard to make a modern "Masters of the Universe" will be worth it in the end.

Hollywood loves returning to Robin Hood since the character's so famous and in the public domain, despite it being over 30 years since the last lucrative Robin Hood film adaptation. 2010's "Robin Hood" was a costly dud, ditto the 2018 iteration starring Taron Egerton. These "realistic" origin stories suggest audiences aren't interested in colorless takes on Robin Hood.

That spells doom for director Michael Sarnoski's "The Death of Robin Hood," an A24-distributed title hitting theaters on June 19th. There isn't much novelty to the movie's hook of exploring a grimy Robin Hood who "isn't a hero," since that was the focal point of the 2010 film. "Death of Robin Hood's" trailers, meanwhile, haven't emphasized much of a distinctive personality, looking more like a Temu version of "The Northman."

The other big problem for "Death of Robin Hood" is that it stars Hugh Jackman, an actor audiences have made consistently clear they only care to see in musicals or "X-Men" movies. Hollywood's always refusing to listen to obvious facts, like general moviegoer disinterest in dour Robin Hood adaptation, a reality likely dooming "The Death of Robin Hood" to a meager box office run.

2018's "Super Troopers 2" brought the titular leads back to the big screen after 16 long years. Given how the original "Super Troopers" is considered by some to be one of the best comedy movies of all time, the chance to see this universe again was enticing. The fact that it launched on 4/20 only amplified its strong box office numbers. Come August 2026, Broken Lizard devotees will experience the mayhem again with "Super Troopers 3."

This time, though, it's doubtful there'll be as much pent-up demand. The original "Super Troopers" was a monster back in the day in terms of DVD sales, building up a notable fanbase. In contrast, "Super Troopers 3" will be following up "Super Troopers 2," which got decidedly mixed reviews and hasn't obtained newfound affection in the eight years since its debut. Plus, given that this is a Searchlight Pictures production, the sequel will be distributed by Disney.

That studio isn't exactly known for effectively launching R-rated comedies to massive box office numbers. Recent Searchlight follow-up "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" flopping seems like a harbinger of what'll happen when "Super Troopers" returns in the summer's final weekends.

This new "Cliffhanger" remake from "Non-Stop" and "Carry-On" director Jaume Collet-Serra is the only film on this list that may not release in time for summer 2026. Recently, news broke that its original U.S. distributor Row K Entertainment may have never fully completed a distribution agreement for the title. Though it remains slated for an August 28, 2026 North America bow, it's currently fuzzy on who's handling it in this territory. Though "Cliffhanger's" producers are high enough on this project to allegedly pursue a sequel, it's doubtful the first will take off no matter who handles its U.S. distribution. 

The biggest movie remake bombs illustrate the perils of just redoing a pre-existing motion picture. Recent events like "Tron: Ares" bombing at the box office, meanwhile, reflect what happens when studios invest too much in yesteryear brand names. While the basic plot of Collet-Serra's "Cliffhanger" — which concerns Lily James as a mountaineer who must save her sister and father from evildoers — sounds different from the original Sylvester Stallone star vehicle, it's still retreading familiar ground. It's going to be an immense challenge convincing people to shell out movie theater money for something they could watch on streaming.

Meanwhile, 2026's "Cliffhanger" lacks either massive actors or a household name director to give it identity. Whatever happens with "Cliffhanger's" distribution troubles, we don't expect this one to scale great heights.