Can Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Match Top Gun Maverick's Billion Dollar Run?

Will Tom Cruise have another billion-dollar grosser on his hands with "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning," or not?

It's complicated.

Cruise has thrilled audiences with his audacious stunts and infectious personality for over three decades, but it was only last year that he posted his first billion-dollar grosser. With "Top Gun: Maverick," Cruise launched himself into the ten-digit club thanks to a global $1.4 billion total. A sequel nearly 40 years in the making, "Maverick" stunned on Memorial Day weekend 2022, with a three-day posting of $126 million. Beating expectations, the aerial flick captivated the industry with its stellar word of mouth, leading to repeat viewings and longevity at multiplexes.

After the COVID-19 pandemic, Cruise's "Maverick" was the theatrical model's saving grace, compelling audiences to leave the comforts of streaming. The movie's appeal was far and wide, with audiences of all ages and races showing up to support Cruise's aerial crusade; it was the perfect summer blockbuster that had the nation talking. The infectious love for "Maverick" in the summer snowballed into admiration in the winter and new year, with the Joseph Kosinski-directed flick emerging as a Best Picture nominee.

A year later, the adrenaline junkie is set to return to cinema halls with "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One," a film that many hope will replicate the impressive legs — and cultural impact — of "Maverick." While "Dead Reckoning" is poised to be one of the biggest films of the year, its path to imitating "Maverick's" mindboggling run is paved with complications, including less-than-stellar tracking and unfortunate competition. Despite its woes, the seventh "Mission" could become another breakthrough hit ... if it makes the right moves.

Thus far, 2018's "Mission: Impossible – Fallout" was the franchise's highest-grossing offering, with $220M domestically and an international cume north of $566M, with the latter thanks to a heavy haul from China. Early tracking for "Dead Reckoning" is promising, suggesting a $90M five-day domestic opening. With a $65M three-day debut, that would give it the best opening weekend for the franchise. As positive word of mouth continues to grow, a five-day haul could touch $110 million, about $40 million less than "Maverick's" long-weekend total. If those debut numbers seem low, especially for one of the world's biggest franchises, remember that "Mission" films have never been frontloaded. These aren't event films, unlike Marvel's offerings, where spoilers need to be contained. Rather, "Mission" is an outing of convenience: a summer fixture that will always be there when family and friends are free.

For cinephiles and Cruise purists, it's a different story, as they'll be eager to see the film while it's available in the IMAX format. Expect PLF (Premium Large Formats) to dominate the opening weekend and drive up numbers. Audiences know that a premium ticket price is a must for a Cruise outing — "Maverick" grossed over $50 million on ScreenX and 4DX screens, and north of $100 million in IMAX. While those in the know will definitely catch "Dead Reckoning" early, the seventh "Mission" will have to post stellar legs, especially domestically, to even be considered as successful as "Maverick."

 Don't forget that "Fallout," which debuted in late July to $61 million, braced a perfectly fine 42% drop in its sophomore weekend, a trend that continued until late August. Can "Dead Reckoning" sustain a massive drop? If it can brace the competition.

"Dead Reckoning" has the wind beneath its wings for a solid opening, but it's the turbulence along the way that could lead to a disappointing domestic total. Originally set to release on July 14, Paramount and Tom Cruise pushed the release early to July 12, with previews starting on the 11th, and an "Early Access Fan Event" on July 10. A five-day weekend has transitioned into a literal week-long debut, all in a bid to fend off the competition — because July 21 sees the release of "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer," two Titans on track to cannibalize each other — and the competition — at the box office.

While "Mission: Impossible" and "Oppenheimer" do share the same male-identifying audience, they're drastically different films with one exception: they're competing for IMAX viewership. Cruise's disappointment in the shortened IMAX run for "Dead Reckoning" isn't surprising considering "Maverick" and "Fallout" made a pretty penny in the premium format. With "Oppenheimer" screening for three weeks in the format, Cruise's latest will likely fail to touch $50 million in IMAX. But it wouldn't be surprising if "Dead Reckoning" returned to the format once exclusivity is wrapped up for "Oppenheimer" — IMAX CEO Rich Gelfond hinted at that very prospect to Variety. "Maverick" shared IMAX screens with several other projects, and returned to the format multiple times, most notably in December, in the weeks leading up to "Avatar: The Way of Water."

Even though Cruise has managed to secure a number of other PLF screens for "Dead Reckoning," will audiences show up? "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" have taken over the cultural conversation, stealing the thunder from "Dead Reckoning." It wouldn't be surprising if the seventh "Mission" dropped hard in its sophomore weekend. This might just be an opening weekend play, which could be a huge disaster. 

Tom Cruise and the "Mission: Impossible" franchise has all the goodwill that money can buy. Cruise just gave audiences one of the best theatrical experiences of their life with "Top Gun: Maverick." And IMF agent Ethan Hunt hasn't seen a dud since "Mission: Impossible 2," the last film in the franchise with a B CinemaScore. Since 2011's "Ghost Protocol," audiences have pretty much-been head over heels in love with each subsequent entry, as signaled by trickling upward box office comes and audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes. Every time a new "Mission: Impossible" comes out, the collective describes it as the best one yet. The same is clearly the case for "Dead Reckoning," which is boasting some of the franchise's most positive reviews. 

Despite Cruise's clout in a post-"Maverick" world, it's very easy to discount his latest "Mission." Consider the legs and the climate that "Rogue Nation" and "Fallout" came out in. Both films boast fantastic domestic legs (the multiplier which indicates box office potential in hindsight) north of 3.5x. If "Dead Reckoning" has a three-day weekend gross of $65 million and if a conservative 3.4x leg is applied, a domestic total is just $221M — not much higher than the stateside haul of "Fallout." Of course, "Dead Reckoning" will gross far more (we're dealing with a five-day weekend), but don't forget that "Rogue Nation" and "Fallout" didn't have behemoth competition in the form of "Oppenheimer" and "Barbie." And there are also stragglers heading to "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny." The fifth "Mission" handled the debut of "Straight Outta Compton" with grace in 2015, while "Fallout" was gently rocked by "The Meg." 

With all this competition, "Mission: Impossible" fans need to be delusional to assume that it will reach the same heights as "Maverick," and that's okay.

To hit a billion, "Dead Reckoning" needs international audiences. While "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" will pose significant threats in English-oriented markets, it's all but likely that they won't have the same global appeal as "Mission: Impossible." China hasn't been too kind to Hollywood lately, but "Fallout" made nearly $200M in the Middle Kingdom — where's the ceiling? As a simple comp, digest the Chinese numbers for 2017's "Fate of the Furious" and 2023's "Fast X" — $392M compared to $145M, a 63% drop. It's not the fairest comp (faith in "Fast" as a franchise has diminished worldwide) but it does signal that a drop is more than likely for "Dead Reckoning." Maybe Cruise can bring home $100M from the country?

Key markets to look at will be South Korea and Japan, who absolutely adored "Top Gun: Maverick." While those two countries posted respectable grosses for "Fallout," it's the "Top Gun" sequel that made them key priorities for Cruise to target — Korea brought in $67M, Japan did almost $98M. France and Germany are also key players, but it will be interesting to see how the Middle East reacts to the film — particularly Saudi Arabia, where "Maverick" boasted a $21M cume — the country's highest. 

Note that "Maverick" also did well in English-speaking markets like Australia and the United Kingdom, where audiences have nostalgia for the original film. Look at the historical international footprint of "Mission: Impossible," and it's Asian countries that do most of the heavy lifting. While there's no doubt that "Dead Reckoning" will do gangbusters in Japan, South Korea, and maybe China, it will be interesting to see if the seventh film can do even half of the total of "Maverick" in the UK ($102M) and Australia ($61M).

The bitter truth is that the "Mission: Impossible" films are getting bigger (and better), but the growth really isn't there. When adjusted for inflation to 2018 dollars, 2011's "Ghost Protocol" made $768M, while "Fallout" roped in $786M — that's barely a 3% increase. These movies should already be making a billion an entry based on how popular and beloved they are. 

Hypotheticals be damned, it's important to focus on the fact that Cruise has put in the work. He debuted the first trailer for "Dead Reckoning" alongside "Maverick," and showed off the upcoming sequel's motorcycle stunt in front of the second-highest-grossing IMAX film of all time, "Avatar: The Way of Water." The best case scenario is that "Dead Reckoning" opens to over $100 million — the first "Mission" to do so, and cruises past the completion domestically as international numbers rank up. A $300 million domestic total would be a miracle, but certainly doable if audiences don't lose interest as soon as new releases pop up.

But Ethan Hunt is no Maverick. There is no nostalgia with "Dead Reckoning" — no curiosity or handling of a legacy. This is just another "Mission" and it doesn't help that the subtitle for the film boasts a "Part One," signaling to audiences that they're getting half a picture for the price of one. It also doesn't help that "Dead Reckoning" boasts a $300M price tag, meaning that a total of $700M+ is needed just to justify its existence. Ultimately, a billion is far-fetched... But take a trip back to 2022 and pundits would say "Maverick" touching $900M was a joke (the original "Top Gun" made $870M when adjusted for inflation). So, let's not bet against Cruise just yet.