2026 Oscars Best Actor Prediction: Which Performance Has The Best Chance To Win

For a while, it seemed like the best actor race at the 2026 Academy Awards was basically locked up ... and it definitely felt like, after last year's near-miss with his Bob Dylan biopic "A Complete Unknown," Timothée Chalamet was basically a lock for his leading role in "Marty Supreme." Based on some recent shifts in the awards season landscape, though, a new clear contender has emerged ... and it's Michael B. Jordan for his dual role in "Sinners."

We should say, right out of the gate, that Chalamet — whose press tour for the ping-pong dramedy "Marty Supreme" has been immersive, to say the least — could still take home the best actor Oscar he's clearly wanted for some time now. (Who can forget his Actor Awards speech in February 2025 where he said he wants to be "one of the greats," per Variety?) Still, speaking of the Actor Awards, when Viola Davis announced the winner of this year's statue early in March 2026, she triumphantly yelled Jordan's name as the camera cut to the unbelievably shocked "Sinners" and "Creed" star at his table.

Guild awards are massively important when it comes to the Academy Awards, because the acting, directing, producing, and writing guilds are also the bodies who vote within the Academy itself. That's why we can declare, with some confidence, that Jordan will win for playing Mississippi-born twins Elijah "Smoke" and Elias "Stack" Moore in Ryan Coogler's first-ever original concept. Not only does Jordan have the clearest and likeliest path to Oscar gold as of this writing, but this win would be extraordinarily well-deserved; Jordan has turned in a number of phenomenal performances, especially in his various projects with his frequent collaborator Coogler. If and when Jordan wins, it'll be completely earned.

The full list of nominees for best actor at the 98th Academy Awards, besides Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan, includes Leonardo DiCaprio for Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another," Wagner Moura for the outstanding Brazilian film "The Secret Agent," and Ethan Hawke for his frequent collaborator Richard Linklater's movie "Blue Moon," where Hawke plays real-life figure Lorenz Hart (of the songwriting duo Rodgers & Hart). Like many of the other acting races, this one is really exciting, largely because every single nominee included is phenomenal. Still, it's hard to overlook Jordan's recent Actor Award and the way that he worked to differentiate between twins Smoke and Stack.

As Jordan's co-star and on-screen wife in "Sinners," Wunmi Mosaku, pointed out on the Kelly Clarkson Show, only one twin has dimples — because Jordan changed the way his face reacted and moved between twins. The guy also wore differently sized shoes for Smoke and Stack so they'd walk differently, which is so thorough and astounding. Yes, Chalamet trained to play ping-pong and put in the work for "Marty Supreme," and it's honestly unfair to sit here and pretend that every single nominee in the 2026 best actor race didn't work incredibly hard to carefully hone their characters for the sharpest possible performances. 

There's just something special about Jordan's performance, though — he is playing two different people!!! — and based on a recent surge of love for "Sinners," it feels like he might take home the top acting prize among his male cohorts. (Sorry, Timmée ... but you've got a long career and a lot of chances ahead of you.) So is there a spoiler?

Again, with apologies to Timothée Chalamet — who really does give a go-for-broke performance as a guy desperate to become a massive success at any cost in "Marty Supreme" — if there's one spoiler in the best actor Oscar race this year, it's actually Leonardo DiCaprio for "One Battle After Another." If you want to get very technical, DiCaprio "plays" "two" "characters" — his revolutionary explosives expert Pat Calhoun is forced to change his name to Bob Ferguson when he goes into hiding with his infant daughter, rechristened Willa (and played by Chase Infiniti as a teenager). Even though Pat and Bob are, obviously, just the same guy, the way DiCaprio plays Bob — a washed-up stoner whose days as a revolutionary are well behind him — feels different than the way he plays a younger Pat at the start of the movie.

Honestly, even though DiCaprio's only Oscar to date is for "The Revenant" — a film that forced the long-time vegetarian to house a bison liver just to win the freakin' statue — he's at his very best when he gets to be wry, funny, and sort of a loser. Take his blustery, overconfident leading role in "The Wolf of Wall Street," his malicious buffoon in "Killers of the Flower Moon," or his faded Western star in "Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood." There's a sense that he's embarking on a sort of "Leo's loser era" thing as an actor, and it's great.

DiCaprio probably won't win his second Oscar on March 15 — and he'll probably stand up and cheer if Jordan is victorious — but to see how it turns out, tune into the ceremony at 7 p.m. EST on ABC and Hulu.