If Ahsoka Isn't Better Than The Mandalorian S3, Star Wars' Filoni-Verse Is Doomed

There's a clear hierarchy for "Star Wars" shows on Disney+. You've got the big ones, like "The Mandalorian," "Obi-Wan Kenobi," and "Andor." Then you've got the smaller series, like "The Bad Batch" and "The Book of Boba Fett." "Ahsoka" fits squarely into the first category, both because Ahsoka Tano (Rosario Dawson) is one of the most popular characters in the modern franchise and because showrunner Dave Filoni is about as close to universally revered as a modern "Star Wars" creative can get.

Disney has a lot riding on the series. It's the live-action debut of Grand Admiral Thrawn (Lars Mikkelsen), one of the most popular characters of the old Expanded Universe. It's a proper Jedi story with new dark-side users, which naturally carries more weight. And with Filoni now helming a proper "Star Wars" movie to wrap up the "Mandalorian" era, "Ahsoka" is a sort of trial run for the franchise's long-awaited return to the big screen.

The big question, of course, is whether or not the "Ahsoka" series will live up to the hype. The "Star Wars" streaming era has been hit-and-miss, with the last big installment — "The Mandalorian" Season 3 — getting a pretty lackluster reception. Though it's been the flagship series for "Star Wars" on Disney+, Din Djarin and Grogu's adventures have started to fizzle. If "Ahsoka" isn't better than "The Mandalorian" Season 3, Filoni's vision for the future — and "Star Wars" in general — could be in jeopardy.

Disney has had some uncontroversial hits since acquiring the "Star Wars" license — "The Force Awakens," "The Mandalorian" Season 1, and "Andor" stand out — but on the whole, the company's time with the franchise has been kind of a mess. Between "The Last Jedi" and "The Rise of Skywalker," Disney managed to alienate pretty much every kind of "Star Wars" fan, leading to a terrified departure from movie theaters that has yet to end.

Even on Disney+, things have been rocky. "Obi-Wan Kenobi" has plenty of fans (and a few Emmy nominations), but it was far from the critical homerun that Ewan McGregor's return should have been. Fervor around "The Mandalorian" has gradually dwindled, with each successive season buckling more under the weight of franchise tie-ins. Because Season 1 was so popular, Disney threw all of its hopes on the show, setting up disappointing spin-offs like "The Book of Boba Fett" and even trying to fix certain elements of the sequel trilogy retroactively. Unsurprisingly, that strategy has hampered the show. Season 3 failed to recapture audience excitement, closing out the Moff Gideon story with more of a whimper than a bang.

Put simply, Disney needs a hit. "Star Wars" can't ride the perfection of "Andor" forever. If it's going to become a big name at the movies again, the franchise needs to become an exciting, family-friendly brand again. It needs characters and storylines that get people invested. In short, "Ahsoka" needs to be a win.

"Star Wars" has gotten too complicated. By adopting the MCU model and pumping out as much interconnected content as possible, Disney has lost part of what once made George Lucas' universe so enticing. At its core, "Star Wars" is a simple kind of adventure story. It's romantic in the classical sense, with every new planet delivering new, impossible vistas, alien creatures, and hidden secrets. Yes, there's always been a shared continuity, but constantly looking backward stifles the excitement. Just think about how many times Disney has returned to Tatooine lately and how sick and tired everyone now is of the desert planet.

"Ahsoka" has the potential to recapture some of that old "Star Wars" magic — new planets, new characters, and a true sense of adventure. It may be continuing lots of storylines from "Star Wars Rebels," but the focus of the show as seen in the trailers seems full of original ideas.

"The Mandalorian" Season 1 is widely loved because it exists apart from the main "Star Wars" story. But as the show has continued, it's become more embroiled in everything else. Watching Din and Grogu's adventures has almost become a chore, as every storyline brings in old characters and sets up vague threads in the sequels. If "Ahsoka" is to succeed at the highest level, it needs to stand on its own, bringing fans the kind of unadulterated adventure that first made "Star Wars" a hit.

Aside from simply being one of Disney's biggest "Star Wars" shows yet, there's another reason why "Ahsoka" needs to be great. Dave Filoni's upcoming "Star Wars" movie is set to be the franchise's triumphant return to theaters, and since the "Rebels" creator is also heading up "Ahsoka," the two are sure to be deeply connected. Filoni has said that the movie will wrap up all the big storylines of the "Mandalorian" era, but with Thrawn coming back in "Ahsoka," it's likely to be the most important.

There's also the Jedi of it all. Disney wouldn't bet the first "Star Wars" film in years on a story with no lightsabers. That's all to say that "Ahsoka" isn't just a singular story, but likely also the setup for a full-on theatrical release. That raises the stakes even higher, especially considering how poorly the last couple of "Star Wars" movies went over.

It's not an overstatement to say that the future of "Star Wars" rests on Filoni's movie. If it does well, it could set up a whole new era of successful theatrical features. If it falls short, other projects like the New Jedi Order movie could be put on hold once again. The key is to engage fans who may not have seen all the Disney+ shows. To do that, the movie needs to have a universal sense of fun. And to do that, it needs "Ahsoka" to get things started.

From a certain point of view, "Ahsoka" is just another in a long line of "Star Wars" shows — a fun continuation of the "Rebels" storylines with some flashy lightsaber fights. But from another, it's the most important thing Lucasfilm has released in years. Bringing back Thrawn and invoking the "Heir to the Empire" title is a huge shot to call. For longtime fans, it promises a new story equivalent to Timothy Zahn's original trilogy. For modern fans, it sets up a proper Jedi adventure in the New Republic era.

But there's more pressure on "Ahsoka" than just delivering a great one-off or setting up Filoni's movie. The showrunner first made a name for himself in "Star Wars" by heading up "The Clone Wars," which largely serves to repair the image of the prequels. In the mid-2000s, Lucas' second trilogy was widely seen as a mess, but under Filoni's leadership, "The Clone Wars" retroactively turned it into a much more cohesive story. Anakin got heroic arcs, Obi-Wan got a tragic love story, and Ahsoka was introduced, providing a much more complex reason for Anakin's ultimate departure from the Jedi.

Filoni has a chance to do the same kind of reparative work for the sequel trilogy. Between "Ahsoka" and the upcoming movie, there's an opportunity to reform the public image of the New Republic era retroactively. But for that to work, "Ahsoka" can't just be another middling "Star Wars" show. It has to be better than "The Mandalorian" Season 3. It has to bring the fans back in.