Across The Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction: Can The Animated Sequel Top Its Predecessor?
Paving the way for the multiverse trend that's now overtaken cinema, the Phil Lord and Chris Miller-produced "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" was a bold venture, with an eye-popping aesthetic complimented by a heartfelt, intimate narrative that deconstructed the Spider-Man mythos. With Miles Morales (voiced by Shameik Moore) as the film's lead, the Sony Pictures Animation effort proved that a webbed wonder could dominate the big screen even if he wasn't Peter Parker.
"Spider-Verse" was a great way for Sony to diversify its Spider-Man portfolio, largely padded out thanks to their partnership with Marvel Studios. The film opened to a sizable $35 million domestically in mid-December 2018 but faced competition in subsequent weeks thanks to the releases of "Aquaman" and "Bumblebee." With stellar word of mouth, the picture legged itself out to a $190 domestic cume. Thanks to a $60 million+ showing from China, the "Spider-Verse" international splash was north of $185 million.
For an animated superhero film, the $375 million worldwide total was fine — it managed to outgross that year's "Teen Titans Go! To The Movies" and 2017's "The Lego Batman Movie." However, considering the film now dominates the conversation as being one of the best of its genre, a cume of less than $400 million worldwide feels like an underperformance. Since 2018, the "Spider-Verse" gospel has only grown, with the film leaving a large impact on the animation industry, ushering in a new era of projects.
Now, Miles Morales and his gang of Spider-folk are set to return with two back-to-back sequels, the first being "Across the Spider-Verse." All signs point to the second outing easily outgrossing its predecessor. What will be interesting to see is if this sequel has what it takes to break the animation barrier and play like a traditional live-action "Spider-Man" epic.
Can Across the Spider-Verse swing to a $100 million opening weekend?
Expectations are sky-high for "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" and Sony knows it, moving the film's social media embargo up by a week to build buzz. Extremely positive reactions say that "Across the Spider-Verse" is a visually astounding superhero romp that manages to be funnier and bolder than its predecessor.
Early tracking all but confirms that the sequel will top its predecessor, but how far can it go? While it'll face some competition from viewers interested in swimming with "The Little Mermaid" during its second weekend, the "Spider-Verse" sequel should comfortably swing north of $80 million. A more liberal opening weekend? An extremely exciting $100 million — a 186% increase from the first film. Is a nine-figure opening weekend possible? Consider how the film, alongside the Miles Morales character (thanks to the PlayStation video game), has become exponentially more popular during the last half-decade. If audiences adore the sequel even half as much as the first, it should easily hit $225 million domestically, potentially touching $250 million. But it seems almost cruel to stop Spidey's potential there.
The question is, how far can it swing? "Across" has all the potential to be one of the biggest films of the summer. It's the follow-up to a critically-acclaimed, Oscar-winning pic and features one of the world's most recognizable characters, whose previous theatrical release ("No Way Home") made over $1.9 billion worldwide. Shouldn't the conversation shift to a $300 million domestic run, minimum? If this year's "Mario" and 2018's "Incredibles" sequel can wrack up half a billion-dollar domestic grosses, shouldn't the numbers be slightly more optimistic for a "Spider-Verse" sequel?
Across the Spider-Verse could be the breakout film of the summer... if it can face off against the competition
Can "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" blur the lines between an animated and live-action superhero film at the box office? There's a genuine shot. In a crowded 2018, "Spider-Verse" emerged as the second lowest-grossing superhero pic of the year, making less than the comparably forgettable "Ant-Man and the Wasp" and "Venom." This year, "Across the Spider-Verse" is guaranteed to bring home $500 million worldwide. But it remains to be seen if this can play like a traditional superhero sequel, which doesn't have the "baggage" of being animated. A $650+ million play worldwide shouldn't just be a pipedream but a genuine possibility.
One thing that could stop "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" from truly breaking out and dominating the summer is competition. An early June release is mired by back-to-back competition from "Transformers: Rise of the Beasts" and "The Flash," two films that are also vying for male-identifying audience members. Early tracking for the "Transformers" reboot is lower than "Spider-Man," but it's a guarantee that the "Spider-Verse" sophomore numbers will be affected by the Paramount pic. And if the hype is to be believed, then Warner Bros.' "Flash" could be a worthy foe for Spidey.
But as time seems to pass, it's slowly becoming clear that "Across the Spider-Verse" could defy the odds and have more staying power than any other film this summer. Expect heavy walkups, fueled by positive social media chatter in the first week. A muted opening for "Transformers" could mean a potential #1 second weekend for "Spider-Verse." After that, the film could leg itself out for the rest of the summer, remaining a fixture of sorts in multiplexes, sort of how "Mario" won't escape auditoriums in its eighth week.
Will Mexico and China embrace Across the Spider-Verse?
If we treat "Across the Spider-Verse" as a film that builds upon the "No Way Home" premise, it's easy to see that most are underestimating this film. Or perhaps optimism has blinded believers who think a frontloaded opening weekend means heavy legs. "Across the Spider-Verse" will have a stellar domestic showing but it is the international markets that will dictate the animated sequel's fate as the winner of the summer. As always, it will be interesting to see how China responds to the film. Considering they didn't receive "No Way Home," it's difficult to gauge just how high Spidey-fever is but early tracking is extremely optimistic, signaling a total that's comparable to the original's $60 million+ gross.
One market that will be particularly interesting to see is Mexico, which has openly embraced "Mario," resulting in a record-breaking $85 million gross. The film it beat for the #1 spot? "No Way Home." The original "Spider-Verse" made just $8 million in Mexico, but it's possible that the sequel could explode in the country, and potentially bring up a total that's over $40 million. In fact, that will likely be the case for several territories. With "Across the Spider-Verse," expect several international markets, particularly in Asia and Europe to show up for the Spider-fest, where it will likely double or triple the previous film's gross. Japan and the United Kingdom, and maybe India could explode as markets that round out the international top five.
Internationally, the expectation is $230 million minimum, but what would be really exciting is a solid $300 million+ showing. The perfect (and increasingly realistic) scenario for "Across the Spider-Verse" could very well be breaking the $708 million cume of 2014's "The Amazing Spider-Man 2."