Betting Odds On Which Avengers Will Die In Infinity War

With Avengers: Infinity War, the Marvel Cinematic Universe is heading towards a conflict that's been building for nearly a decade. Thanos, the villain whose collision course with the rest of the heroes was put into motion as far back as 2012's Avengers, is finally taking center stage in a battle for the Infinity Stones that will unite an entire universe of superheroes, with undoubtedly lethal consequences. Given the stakes involved and the Mad Titan's status as the ultimate bad guy of the Marvel movies, the question isn't if one of the heroes will die, but which ones.

That said, there's no sense in dreading it without having a little fun along the way. To that end, we've taken a look at the cast of Infinity War to come up with our best betting odds on which heroes might not make it to the closing credits. Watch out for potential spoilers, but keep in mind that these are only our educated guesses.

Okay, let's get this one out of the way right up front: Tony Stark is absolutely going to die in this movie.

It might actually be the only logical conclusion to a character arc that's been building since 2008. Over the past few movies, Tony's fears about the changing world and his efforts to get ahead of the inevitable disasters that come from a world full of superheroes and villains have gone increasingly awry. His attempt to create artificial intelligence unleashed Ultron on the world and resulted in the complete destruction of Sokovia, which in turn led directly to the Avengers themselves being destroyed as a team during the events of Civil War. Even his most recent protege, Peter Parker, was defined by his choice to reject the path that Tony took as Iron Man. With a conflict that's far bigger and far more far-reaching than anything he's dealt with before, the consequences are going to be just as huge — and for Tony, that likely means a heroic sacrifice.

There's a certain poetry to it. Iron Man was the movie that kicked off the MCU in 2008, and what better way to mark the 10th anniversary of the cinematic universe than by killing off its founding character? It just makes sense, especially with a replacement already established in James Rhodes, the character who took over for Iron Man in the comics. With the injuries he suffered in Civil War leading him to need some variation of Stark's armor to walk, Rhodey's current status mirrors the original setup of Tony needing the ARC reactor mounted in his chest to keep his heart beating. If a 52-year-old Robert Downey Jr. is moving on from the role he's played for a decade, then Don Cheadle could very easily step into the armor and hold down an all-new, all-different Iron Man movie on his own.

Odds: 3 to 2

If the fact that Tony Stark has a potential successor waiting in the wings is a sign that he might not make it through the movie, then Captain America better watch his back too. Steve Rogers has not one, but two characters that could take up his shield if he falls in battle: the Falcon and Bucky Barnes have both taken over the Captain America identity at different times in the comics.

Besides, Steve is easily the most beloved of the Avengers, so if the film's producers really want to hit the audience with a gut punch, there's very little they could do that would be as emotionally affecting as killing off Captain America. It even works in the context of the movies. What better way to reunite the Avengers after the events of Civil War than having them rally around Captain America's heroic sacrifice?

Really, though, the reason Cap is an odds-on favorite for the funeral home has nothing to do with the continuity of the movies and everything to do with real life. Chris Evans has confirmed that he intends to retire from blockbuster movies like the Avengers films to focus on smaller roles and a quiet life remodeling houses. He mentioned that he's still set to appear in the movie that comes after Infinity War, but there's nothing that says that appearance won't be in a flashback... or a coffin.

Odds: 3 to 1

It's no secret that Infinity War is drawing pretty heavily from the events of 1991's Infinity Gauntlet storyline. Depending on how much the producers plan on drawing from the comics, that could be pretty bad news for Nebula.

In the original story, Thanos not only kills Nebula, he reanimates her corpse, keeping her suspended just on the verge of death as a form of torture to amuse himself. The twist is that even then, Nebula is able to get control of the Infinity Stones herself, using them to briefly return to her normal form.

With the focus that Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 gave to patching up Nebula's relationship with Gamora — and to establishing that Thanos is already no stranger to mutilating Nebula's body to serve his own ends — having Thanos target his renegade daughter would be an easy way to show moviegoers how ruthless he can be.  

Odds: 5 to 1

He saved the day in Age of Ultron, but since then, the Vision's had a pretty hard time fitting into his role as an Avenger. In Civil War, he couldn't even stop Hawkeye and Scarlet Witch from walking out of a room, and a misfired laser beam wound up permanently injuring War Machine, one of his own teammates. With that kind of track record, it's tough to imagine him lasting long in a fight against Thanos.

The bigger problem, though, comes from the fact that the Vision has one of the Infinity Stones mounted on his forehead. Since we already know Thanos forms the full Infinity Gauntlet in the movie, and that doing so requires him to have all six Stones, things aren't looking good for the Avengers' resident synthezoid. At the very least, we know he's going to have something ripped out of his head, and even robotic bodies tend to have a pretty hard time dealing with that.

Odds: 5 to 1

If you think about the hero who seems least likely to die at the hands of the Mad Titan, Peter Quill looks like the easiest safe choice on the entire roster. Along with the rest of the Guardians, he's the one who's faced off (and survived) the kind of cosmic threats that are on Thanos' level, and as the leader of the team, he's the one who can take the lead and tell the Earth-bound heroes exactly what they're dealing with. Plus, Chris Pratt's comedic chops have set the tone that the Guardians movies are built on, and he's got a romantic subplot with Gamora that's yet to be resolved.

But that's the thing about the least likely choices: they're the ones that will surprise you if they're the ones who go down swinging. Star-Lord's death would be a huge shock, and paradoxically, that might just mean it's way more likely to happen than you think. If it does, though, well, don't worry too much. He is, after all, half Living Planet, and as we all saw in Guardians 2, it takes more than a couple of blaster bolts to the head to take one of them out permanently. Nobody ever said they had to stay dead.

Odds: 10 to 1

While his first solo outing felt like a retread of the same beats viewers had already seen in the Iron Man franchise, albeit one with a great visual style and an amazing twist at the end, Doctor Strange's appearance in Thor: Ragnarok has proven he can add a lot of interesting fun to the MCU. As the Sorcerer Supreme, Strange is the only one to face the kind of singular cosmic threat Thanos represents, taking on Dormammu by himself and coming away with a victory. With that kind of win on his record, it seems likely that Strange's formal introduction to the Avengers could be the thing that tips odds in their favor.

There is, however, one big question mark. According to the IMDb, Benedict Cumberbatch isn't slated for any Marvel movies after Infinity War. With films announced up through 2020, that makes him pretty conspicuous in his absence, but since the filmmakers already set up Baron Mordo as a villain for his next outing, it's a little safer to assume that they're eventually going to pay that off.

Odds: 8 to 1

It seems like the only reason that Clint Barton hasn't already shuffled loose this mortal coil in the MCU is that they wanted it to be a surprise in Age of Ultron when Quicksilver died instead. Even after that, though, Hawkeye hasn't been the most obvious of creative priorities for Marvel Studios, which is easy to see by tracing the arc he's followed since: he's retired, gotten bored enough to join Captain America's illegal strike force, and been imprisoned as a war criminal by Iron Man. Those are all pretty good signs that the Marvel Cinematic Universe doesn't have much left to do with the Avengers archer beyond giving him a shocking death to let everyone else know the stakes in the war against Thanos.

Let's be real for a second, though: if they did kill off Hawkeye in these movies, would you actually even notice?

Odds: 10 to 1  

Of all the Guardians of the Galaxy, Drax seems like he might be the most likely choice for the chopping block. In the comics, his entire reason for living is to kill Thanos. Since the MCU's take on Drax tends to launch himself into battle without thinking of any consequences other than pulverizing everything that stands between him and his goal, any similar inclinations could lead to a toe-to-toe fight with the deadliest being the Marvel Universe has to offer.

If that is in fact what happens, it's pretty hard to imagine Drax coming out as the winner, and a whole lot easier to imagine Thanos effortlessly ending the Guardians' strongest member to establish himself as the biggest threat in the galaxy. At the same time, Dave Bautista's performances in the Guardians movies have made him a bigger a fan favorite on the screen than he ever was in the pro wrestling ring. The question is whether the shock and emotional impact of having him take one for the team is enough to outweigh the benefits of keeping him around.

Odds: 12 to 1

It might've been notable for being the funniest movie in the MCU so far, but Thor: Ragnarok also put Thor through the wringer as a character. His hammer was shattered, he lost an eye, and his homeland of Asgard was destroyed, leaving him exiled in outer space. If the plan is for things to keep getting worse for the Odinson, then there's really not a whole lot left do with him but plant him under a tombstone.

But that might be what saves him, too. With so much coming down on him in his own movie, Thor is in a much more interesting place now than he was before the events of Ragnarok, and it'll be a lot more exciting to see one of the MCU's most powerful characters fight back as an underdog for once. Throw in the fact that he's already set to get a new hammer in Infinity War — Stormbreaker, the one that his oath-brother Beta Ray Bill wields in the comics — and it seems much more likely that Thor's luck is starting to change.

Odds: 15 to 1

On one level, Hulk is arguably the easiest character to imagine being killed off in Infinity War. Despite being one of the most famous heroes on the roster, and having a great actor playing the part in Mark Ruffalo, he hasn't been seen in a solo movie since 2008's Incredible Hulk, the movie that everyone always forgets is actually part of the MCU. With Marvel Studios seeming pretty uninterested in giving the Hulk a solo spotlight, there's a strong possibility that his part in the franchise might be coming to an end.

There's another reason to suspect that the Hulk might be smashing his way to an early grave, though. In an interview he gave while promoting Thor: Ragnarok, Ruffalo revealed that the plan behind the scenes was to give the Hulk an arc that would continue through three different movies: Ragnarok, and the two-part saga that starts with Infinity War. If you saw Ragnarok, you already know that it starts with Bruce becoming the Hulk for years at a time and the Hulk gaining much more control over his rage-powered form. It's an interesting setup going into Infinity War, but if the idea is to bring an arc to its conclusion, there's one definitive way to do that.

Odds: 20 to 1

Considering that fans have been clamoring for a Black Widow solo movie since she first kicked her way onto the screen in Iron Man 2 (and launched the MCU's endless fascination with hallway fights in the process), it seems like killing her off before we actually get to see her step out and whoop bad guy butt on her own seems like a catastrophically bad idea. Then again, maybe the studio is hoping that Red Sparrow, which surprised everyone by somehow not being a movie about Black Widow despite lifting every single beat of her origin story, has satisfied the audience enough that they're in the clear.

All in all, it seems like Natasha Romanoff's fate during the Infinity War saga could go either way, depending on how willing Marvel Studios is to risk full-on riots in the theater on opening weekend.

Odds: 50 to 1

With most of the characters on this list, the question of whether they're going to make it through Infinity War comes down to figuring out how much credibility their deaths would lend to Thanos as a threat. With Gamora, it's more like the opposite.

She is, after all, the deadliest woman in the galaxy. If the MCU wants to have her live up to that title, there aren't a lot of better ways to do it than by having her hold her own against Thanos, even in the context of a bigger superhero smackdown. When you think about how much of her character arc in the Guardians movies has been about wanting revenge against Thanos for what he did to her and her sister, the likelihood of something happening to Nebula that could set her up for revenge, and the eagerness of fans who want to see her step out of Peter Quill's shadow, it seems a whole lot more likely that she'll be left standing at the end of the fight.

Odds: 75 to 1

One of Spider-Man's defining moments in the comics comes when Galactus, the cosmically powerful Devourer of Worlds, shows up in Manhattan looking for a fight. While the Avengers, the Fantastic Four, and every other super-powerful hero launch themselves into a battle, Spider-Man and Daredevil show up, realize that there's not much that a couple of guys who shoot webs and swing around Manhattan can do in a battle of that scale, and just sit down on a rooftop to watch.

Make no mistake: the teenage Spider-Man is every bit as outmatched going up against Thanos as his comic book counterpart was in that story, and his presence in the movie means that this time, he doesn't have the option of sitting it out. As tough as it is to imagine a guy who had trouble with the Vulture making it through a fight with Thanos, though, the MCU's Spider-Man is way too new and way too popular to be taken down here.

Odds: 100 to 1

The Marvel Cinematic Universe has doled out more than its share of jaw-dropping surprises over the last decade, and the studio's braintrust has proven itself more than willing to take bold creative risks with the franchise's storytelling. Still, even Marvel Studios can't help but be impacted by real-life concerns once in a while, and that definitely has an effect on the betting odds on which Avengers will die in Infinity War. All of which is to say that we don't know whether you noticed, but Black Panther just became one of the highest-grossing superhero movies of all time and is still going strong. Forget about the Vibranium, pulling in that much money at the theater is what really makes T'Challa bulletproof, and there's no way Wakanda's king isn't one of the heroes left standing once Infinity War is over.

Odds: 1.237 billion (and counting) to 1